The idea that African economies could leap over the industrialisation stage and head straight for a digital, service‑based future has become a hot topic among development economists. The term, borrowed from a childhood game in which one child jumps over another, is used to describe a strategy that could save time and money for poor and lagging regions.
Harvard professor Dani Rodrik, 2020 Princess of Asturias Prize laureate, argues that Africa’s circumstances force it to skip the traditional manufacturing phase. He says modern industry is capital‑intensive, requires high levels of infrastructure and governance, and cannot absorb large numbers of unskilled workers. Rodrik urges African states to boost productivity in small retail and hospitality businesses, using digital tools where possible, to create jobs that could foster a middle class and inclusive development.
However, the proposal is not without risk. Manchester University researcher Pritish Beturia warns that a leapfrogging strategy could lead to a precarious, low‑value service sector. Beturia cites Rwanda, which is investing heavily in high‑value services such as finance, events and start‑ups. While Rwanda’s experiment attracts attention, Beturia notes that 60% of its youth remain under‑employed and many return to agriculture for survival.
South African economist Jakki Cilliers, author of Africa’s Road to Prosperity and director of a future‑economy programme, rejects the idea that industry can be ignored. His team has built a predictive model that shows a transition is needed to shift economic structures toward a greater industrial weight. Cilliers stresses that services are increasingly important globally, but the sectors that dominate today—such as roadside mechanics or dilapidated hair salons—are low‑productivity and should be re‑prioritised.
In the second sense of leapfrogging—as a catalyst for traditional development—energy and finance emerge as key areas. Analysts highlight the potential for renewable power and mobile money to transform African economies without the constraints of outdated systems. Kouassi Yeboua, author of a recent report on African innovation, points to decentralized renewable networks as a solution to the continent’s 600‑million‑person electricity deficit. He also praises mobile money for enabling millions of unbanked individuals to transact and save using simple devices, creating a rapid, inclusive financial revolution.
Cilliers agrees that micro‑grids powered by renewables will play a major role, but cautions that Africa’s average per‑capita energy use—3.6 barrels of oil per year—means that development will only take off if consumption patterns change.
